The Gentle Singularity

https://blog.samaltman.com/the-gentle-singularity

If the gentle singularity is true, then perhaps the AGI timeline question was malformed all along. Acting like some variant of Goodhart’s law, the reification of AGI holds the assumption that AGI will be a singularity. But it is definitely difficult to reject a question (social stigma of dodging), so one has to submit to the ideological assumptions.

The very invisibility of the ideological assumptions makes them powerful and go largely unexamined. They take on a hypnotic quality. Reminds me of Feyerabend, who noted invisible assumptions in scientific fact, which much like questions don the robe of neutrality — there is no harm in asking a question, there is no harm in scientific fact. Under Aristotelian physics, “the ball fell”, which feels neutral yet is more favorable towards an agency, impetus-based physical explanation. Under Newtonian physics, the ball was pulled by earth. Science is not value-free because we are psychological creatures and thus linguistic representations of reality will always point in a direction of thought.

A bit of a tangent but we may have wasted a good # of human-thought-hours into answering the wrong question when we should have rejected the question in the first place.

Also worth reading:
https://x.com/basedbeffjezos/status/1781969848031133732

>> In the most important ways, the 2030s may not be wildly different. People will still love their families, express their creativity, play games, and swim in lakes.

People compete on the world of ideas, those of emotions still exist like animals in a zoo.

>> In the 2030s, intelligence and energy—ideas, and the ability to make ideas happen—are going to become wildly abundant. These two have been the fundamental limiters on human progress for a long time; with abundant intelligence and energy (and good governance), we can theoretically have anything else.

Money seems like an insignificant factor because his people are in control of it, hence the ability to direct others' labour at will.