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Why AGI Will Not Happen

anon_kysw said in #4801 5d ago: received

https://timdettmers.com/2025/12/10/why-agi-will-not-happen/

>Computation is physical. This is also true for biological systems. The computational capacity of all animals is limited by the possible caloric intake in their ecological niche. If you have the average calorie intake of a primate, you can calculate within 99% accuracy how many neurons that primate has. Humans invented cooking, which increased the physically possible caloric intake substantially through predigestion. But we reached the physical limits of intelligence. When women are pregnant, they need to feed two brains, which is so expensive that physically, the gut cannot mobilize enough macronutrients to keep both alive if our brains were bigger. With bigger brains, we would not be able to have children — not because of the birth canal being too small, but because we would not be able to provide enough energy — making our current intelligence a physical boundary that we cannot cross due to energy limitations.

referenced by: >>4824

>Computation is phys received

egon said in #4804 5d ago: received

What an odd and desperate cope.

> [Locomotion] is physical. This is also true for biological systems. [...] But [cheetahs] reached the physical limits of [speed]

See how this works?

There are indeed fundamental physics limits to computation, like the Landauer Limit. They are astronomically high. The fact that squishy biological meat brains are limited to far lower ceilings, roughly the capabilities we see today, is a powerful argument FOR the inevitability of superintelligence.

Every other time we've replicated an animal-kingdom capability in a machine, no matter how limited initially--whether in flight, under sea, or in virtual domains like communication--technology has met and then wildly exceeded biology in short order.

What an odd and desp received

anon_magi said in #4838 14h ago: received

Yeah, if you paste his post into any reasonable AI it'll poke a ton of holes in it immediately. People should really run their effortposts through AIs before posting these days. It can quickly save a lot of embarrassment.

Yeah, if you paste h received

phaedrus said in #4839 12h ago: received

The human brain exists and is basically incomprehensibly more advanced than current AI systems, so obviously the physical limits are way beyond current tech. This guy is an imbecile.

More than that though, I think this critique is an example of a common type error, where someone will point out all the challenges of advancing in a hard, complex domain and then argue that advancement will definitely stall. Of course progress is hard in complex domains, so that's why there's half a trillion dollars in capital investment and tens of thousands of 130+ IQ researchers working on AI improvement. You're a blogger so of course you can't just derive the next AI advancements from first principles, but the entire history of AI is just more and more smart people using more and more computational power to solve harder and harder problems. That's not going to stop now.

The human brain exis received

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