anon_nali said in #5036 3d ago:
Wars are often understood to be entirely negative/tragic events. While my goal isn’t to deny the tragedy of human suffering wars cause, they do advance state/cultural evolution.
Stephen Kotkin noted that westernization/modernization (adaption of standing professional armies, industrial economies, centralized bureaucracies, mass education) of the rest of the world happened due to interstate competition. Geopolitics, not ideology or culture, was the primary driver of state formation and modernization.
A world where Pax Americana guarantees the sanctity of post-1945 borders, is a world with limited cultural/state evolution. This is a particularly problematic status quo for failed states. Whereas they are often hollowed out, weak, corrupt and unpopular, they can be sustained indefinitely so long as they are protected under Pax Americana.
Failed states should not be protected by Pax Americana. They should be fair game for interstate competition.
If Somaliland and Puntland are stable, and have the popular support for secession, while Somalia itself is a failed state they should be able secede. Likewise if DR Congo is a failed state, Rwanda should be able to conquer Eastern DR Congo.
A potential mechanism that can try to formalize into the rules based international order can be states maintaining a failed states list. Individual states/provinces may secede from the failed central state by holding a referendum with international observers. Alternatively, neighboring countries may annex parts or whole of the failed state if they follow Geneva conventions in their invasion and then subsequently hold and win a referendum in the new territories with international observers present.
The idea behind this mechanism is that it can revive interstate competition, rescue failed states meanwhile minimizing civilian casualties.
Stephen Kotkin noted that westernization/modernization (adaption of standing professional armies, industrial economies, centralized bureaucracies, mass education) of the rest of the world happened due to interstate competition. Geopolitics, not ideology or culture, was the primary driver of state formation and modernization.
A world where Pax Americana guarantees the sanctity of post-1945 borders, is a world with limited cultural/state evolution. This is a particularly problematic status quo for failed states. Whereas they are often hollowed out, weak, corrupt and unpopular, they can be sustained indefinitely so long as they are protected under Pax Americana.
Failed states should not be protected by Pax Americana. They should be fair game for interstate competition.
If Somaliland and Puntland are stable, and have the popular support for secession, while Somalia itself is a failed state they should be able secede. Likewise if DR Congo is a failed state, Rwanda should be able to conquer Eastern DR Congo.
A potential mechanism that can try to formalize into the rules based international order can be states maintaining a failed states list. Individual states/provinces may secede from the failed central state by holding a referendum with international observers. Alternatively, neighboring countries may annex parts or whole of the failed state if they follow Geneva conventions in their invasion and then subsequently hold and win a referendum in the new territories with international observers present.
The idea behind this mechanism is that it can revive interstate competition, rescue failed states meanwhile minimizing civilian casualties.
Wars are often under