Prediction Group House Idea Years ago, before the rise of Polymarket and Kalshi, I read Phil Tetlock's Superforecasters and thought hard about the implications. I've my more or less my entire career investing and the book resonated with me immediately. The basic concept is straightfo... posted 2mo ago with 10 replies (collapse hidden) log in to judge received 13.4 13.4 Prediction Group Hou (view hidden) log in to judge received 13.4 13.4 1. I would strongly bet that it is, if your raw material is 95th percentile or better IQ.... 2mo ago (collapse hidden) log in to judge received 4.2 4.2 1. I would strongly (view hidden) log in to judge received 4.2 4.2 That's a pretty good piece of negative evidence. can you DM me a name on Signal (assuming you know who I am) so that I could hear from them what worked and what didn't?... 2mo ago (collapse hidden) log in to judge received 2.7 2.7 That's a pretty good (view hidden) log in to judge received 2.7 2.7 couldn't the same be said for literally all forms of gambling? You know the house has an edge but you gamble anyway. How are prediction markets different? People buy and sell prediction contracts for all kinds of idiosyncratic reasons, maybe their buddy wh... 2mo ago (collapse hidden) log in to judge received 1.3 1.3 couldn't the same be (view hidden) log in to judge received 1.3 1.3 Now that prediction markets a proliferating on numerous platforms you might not even need an edge, maybe probability arbitrage is profitable! You find Iran Yes trades at 25 cents on Platform A and 35 cents on Platform B but the contracts are worded identic... 2mo ago (collapse hidden) log in to judge received 1.3 1.3 Now that prediction (view hidden) log in to judge received 1.3 1.3