in thread "Kolmogorov Paranoia: Extraordinary Evidence Probably Isn't.": can you just do this with standard Bayes? For example I expect a random coin I pick up to be fair with 99.999% probability, but if roll twenty heads in a row I'm going to be pretty sure something's wrong with with my estimates of the coin's parameters or w... 2w ago (collapse hidden) log in to judge received 4.9 4.9 can you just do this (view hidden) log in to judge received 4.9 4.9