anon_toli received

Kolmogorov Paranoia: Extraordinary Evidence Probably Isn't.
I enjoyed this takedown of Scott Alexander's support for the COVID natural origins theory. Basically, Scott did a big "bayesian" analysis of the evidence for and against the idea that COVID originated in the lab vs naturally. As per his usual pre-written c... (michaelweissman.substack.com) posted 5mo ago with 2 replies received

Kolmogorov Paranoia: received

To be clear this scheme is actually bayesian. Yes you can do this with standard bayes, and the bayesian update from the experts or whatever is dominated by the nonindependence hypotheses. The point is to actually do it, and that you can heuristically estim... 5mo ago received

To be clear this sch received